Memutus Kemiskinan Persisten di Provinsi Kepulauan: Peran Kesenjangan Infrastruktur dalam Panel Dinamis dan Spasial

Desry Jonelda Louhenapessy; Terezia V. Pattimahu; Samuel Souhoka

doi:10.59059/jupiekes.v4i3.3447

Authors

Desry Jonelda Louhenapessy Universitas Pattimura
Terezia V. Pattimahu Universitas Pattimura
Samuel Souhoka Universitas Pattimura

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59059/jupiekes.v4i3.3447

Keywords:

Infrastructure, Maluku, Poverty, Spatial Durbin Model, System GMM

Abstract

Poverty in archipelagic regions is characterized by persistence, chronicity, and vulnerability to geographical isolation. This study examines how basic infrastructure gaps shape poverty across 11 regencies and municipalities in Maluku Province during 2010–2025. It combines System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) with a panel-data Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) using Fixed Effects to capture temporal persistence and spatial interdependence. The Pesaran CD test and Global Moran’s I confirm strong positive spatial autocorrelation (I = 0.5342; p < 0.05). LISA analysis reveals persistent spatial polarization, with the Southeastern Islands in the High-High (Hotspot) quadrant, the Ambon–Central Maluku corridor in the Low-Low (Coldspot) quadrant, and Southwest Maluku as a High-Low spatial outlier. System GMM estimation indicates a significant poverty trap, reflected in the positive coefficient of lagged poverty (β = 0.7845; p = 0.0000). SDM effect decomposition shows that the electrification ratio and open unemployment rate (TPT) generate significant spatial spillovers (p < 0.05). Electrification expansion reduces local poverty and creates positive externalities across neighboring regions (Indirect Effect = −0.1142), whereas labor-market shocks worsen poverty in surrounding areas (Indirect Effect = 4.2336). These findings highlight the need to restructure regional capital expenditure through an integrated regional-cluster consortium to reduce spatial inequality and weaken the spatial decay effect across outer islands and border regions.

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